*
That's my prediction. Sarah Palin will, for the moment, be America's darling once again because the corporate media will agree that she avoided any moose-in-the-headlights moments (even though I believe she had several small but noticeable ones). The media were put on notice that they were being mean to her, so now they will be nice.
Celebrity journalists and pundits will not point out her repeating of discredited lies, because she did it with poise, in their eyes. They will not comment on how she dodged every question of Republican accountability for the past 8 years by scolding Joe Biden for "looking backward" and "playing the blame game" while she took several openings to invoke the glory of Ronald Reagan and the lying, filthy ideology he used on behalf of others to start destroying the U.S. economy, accelerating assaults on the environment, and nibbling away at the rule of law. Looking back is only OK if we are worshipping Ronald Reagan, but not if we are trying to hold his heirs accountable for rendering America into a necrotic basket case, twitching itself toward oblivion in the planet's newest back alley.
Looking composed and glamorous while she recites canned little speeches and Big Lies does not qualify Sarah Palin to be Vice President any more than my Calvin Klein underwear and full head of hair qualify me to stand in as George Clooney's body double.
I have not looked at any news sites or blogs yet tonight, but that is my prediction: expect swooning, completely uncalled-for. I would not even be surprised by a momentary upward twitch for the GOP in the tracking polls. But don't worry: by Monday we may be talking about the decaying financial system once again. And, after all, it's October. Are you ready for your big surprise?
This has been another edition of Moose droppings.
Showing posts with label predictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label predictions. Show all posts
Thursday, October 2, 2008
Thursday, September 4, 2008
As seen on dansolomon.com [updated]
*
Last night I responded to an open invitation for guest posts issued by my blog-world friend Dan Solomon, who is busy resettling back in the U.S.S.A. after living in teh England. I offered Dan a StuporMundi Exclusive looking back on my Petraeus/Lieberman '08 fugue, and why I believe the principles behind my strategy would have been sound for Republicans. I'm very gratified that he posted it, and I thank him. Take a look if you like.
Update: Go read my post on dansolomon.com, goddamit!!!
Last night I responded to an open invitation for guest posts issued by my blog-world friend Dan Solomon, who is busy resettling back in the U.S.S.A. after living in teh England. I offered Dan a StuporMundi Exclusive looking back on my Petraeus/Lieberman '08 fugue, and why I believe the principles behind my strategy would have been sound for Republicans. I'm very gratified that he posted it, and I thank him. Take a look if you like.
Update: Go read my post on dansolomon.com, goddamit!!!
Monday, August 4, 2008
Revisiting Petraeus/Lieberman '08
*
On 16 December 2007, in an early blog post characterized by mediocre writing, I presented my reasons for predicting that a brokered Republican National Convention would result in a ticket of Joe Lieberman and General David Petraeus. I'm sure everybody thought this was quite cute.
Today, with John McCain becoming an object of open scorn for some members of the elite Washington media, and even Paris Hilton's mother, I'm afraid (scared to death, actually) I'm going to have to "double down" on my prediction. Forget the stupid polls that say McCain has a nominal lead over Obama --- Zogby's polls have been wrong about pretty much everything all year. I am convinced that John McCain will not be running for President in October 2008.
First, the Republicans cannot afford to cede the Executive Branch and all the law enforcement and judicial appointment power that comes with it. The Republicans will not lose this election without trying tricks that aren't even in the book yet (outside of this blog). Everyone knows that McCain will lose against Obama no matter what pollsters or pundits say. Want proof? Just think about it for a moment. War, economy, energy: nobody on earth really thinks John McCain has any idea what the problems are, let alone the solutions.
Second, the Republicans have literally no one to run for President who is both well known and untainted by scandal, historical incompetence, etc. That is why McCain is the nominal candidate. But the GOP needs a real candidate and a off-the-scales strategy for winning the November election.
I believe they have that strategy.
Right now, John McCain's bigoted, incompetent campaign serves two Republican purposes. One is that Rove and his proteges are damaging Obama with the standard GOP bigotry and smears; the other is that Republicans are desperate for anyone to deliver them from the disaster of a McCain candidacy. They need someone who will unite the militarists, the corporate interests, the fundamentalists, and low-information "independent voters."
McCain's purpose --- damaging Obama --- will run its course soon, let's say around Labor Day, during the GOP convention, when it is finally time to start the real election campaign they've been planning along. Now imagine this: an "asymmetric" political strategy that begins with McCain dropping out at or shortly before the convention. Maybe he becomes unable to continue his campaign, ostensibly (or in fact) for health reasons.
National drama! The Republicans will have to rally around someone fast --- a devil we don't know, so to speak. The convention ensures maximal prime time viewing for all us suckers out here in TV land. What to do? Draft the only prominent Republican personage who no one would dare to criticize: Dave Petraeus. During the run-up to our annual September 11 fetish, The Architect Of The Surge, a telegenic general who both Republicans and the corporate media love, rides in on his White Horse.
There would be a month-long love affair by the press just because of the novelty of it all. Obama's campaign strategy, whatever it is, would be null. His message and voice would be drowned out for weeks on end. His strategists would be in disarray over how to handle the General. Anyone who wants an excuse to vote against Obama would have one. And Barack, to paraphrase what Hunter Thompson once said of Hubert Humphrey after being stabbed in the back, would look like he'd been sprayed in the face with shitmist.
As a side note, consider that Petraeus recently promoted to head CENTCOM, which Time correctly calls "the core of the U.S. military's current operations". No General in DoD has more power. And, unlike even McCain and Bush, General Petraeus will hear none of this "timetable" crap.
Of course Petraeus will need an inoffensive running mate, perhaps a moralistic, comparatively clean nebbish who is nominally a Democrat. One whose name begins with "Lie". One to whom the General can "reach across the aisle" to construct the Dream Unity '08 Ticket.
This idea truly frightens me. I have to come back later and edit this mess when I'm not feeling sick.
On 16 December 2007, in an early blog post characterized by mediocre writing, I presented my reasons for predicting that a brokered Republican National Convention would result in a ticket of Joe Lieberman and General David Petraeus. I'm sure everybody thought this was quite cute.
Today, with John McCain becoming an object of open scorn for some members of the elite Washington media, and even Paris Hilton's mother, I'm afraid (scared to death, actually) I'm going to have to "double down" on my prediction. Forget the stupid polls that say McCain has a nominal lead over Obama --- Zogby's polls have been wrong about pretty much everything all year. I am convinced that John McCain will not be running for President in October 2008.
First, the Republicans cannot afford to cede the Executive Branch and all the law enforcement and judicial appointment power that comes with it. The Republicans will not lose this election without trying tricks that aren't even in the book yet (outside of this blog). Everyone knows that McCain will lose against Obama no matter what pollsters or pundits say. Want proof? Just think about it for a moment. War, economy, energy: nobody on earth really thinks John McCain has any idea what the problems are, let alone the solutions.
Second, the Republicans have literally no one to run for President who is both well known and untainted by scandal, historical incompetence, etc. That is why McCain is the nominal candidate. But the GOP needs a real candidate and a off-the-scales strategy for winning the November election.
I believe they have that strategy.
Right now, John McCain's bigoted, incompetent campaign serves two Republican purposes. One is that Rove and his proteges are damaging Obama with the standard GOP bigotry and smears; the other is that Republicans are desperate for anyone to deliver them from the disaster of a McCain candidacy. They need someone who will unite the militarists, the corporate interests, the fundamentalists, and low-information "independent voters."
McCain's purpose --- damaging Obama --- will run its course soon, let's say around Labor Day, during the GOP convention, when it is finally time to start the real election campaign they've been planning along. Now imagine this: an "asymmetric" political strategy that begins with McCain dropping out at or shortly before the convention. Maybe he becomes unable to continue his campaign, ostensibly (or in fact) for health reasons.
National drama! The Republicans will have to rally around someone fast --- a devil we don't know, so to speak. The convention ensures maximal prime time viewing for all us suckers out here in TV land. What to do? Draft the only prominent Republican personage who no one would dare to criticize: Dave Petraeus. During the run-up to our annual September 11 fetish, The Architect Of The Surge, a telegenic general who both Republicans and the corporate media love, rides in on his White Horse.
There would be a month-long love affair by the press just because of the novelty of it all. Obama's campaign strategy, whatever it is, would be null. His message and voice would be drowned out for weeks on end. His strategists would be in disarray over how to handle the General. Anyone who wants an excuse to vote against Obama would have one. And Barack, to paraphrase what Hunter Thompson once said of Hubert Humphrey after being stabbed in the back, would look like he'd been sprayed in the face with shitmist.
As a side note, consider that Petraeus recently promoted to head CENTCOM, which Time correctly calls "the core of the U.S. military's current operations". No General in DoD has more power. And, unlike even McCain and Bush, General Petraeus will hear none of this "timetable" crap.
Of course Petraeus will need an inoffensive running mate, perhaps a moralistic, comparatively clean nebbish who is nominally a Democrat. One whose name begins with "Lie". One to whom the General can "reach across the aisle" to construct the Dream Unity '08 Ticket.
This idea truly frightens me. I have to come back later and edit this mess when I'm not feeling sick.
Monday, June 16, 2008
SCOTUS, not VP
*
To this, I say this: I think the Clinton for VP issue is a red herring. There's no way she'll get the VP nomination, and I'm sure she doesn't want it. There's a much bigger incentive for her to go out and help nail down the "bitter" vote for Obama: SCOTUS. And after replacing Stevens, she would even be in a position to make history for women by, later, being named the first female Chief Justice (after Roberts and Alito are impeached for being "disingenuous" during their confirmation hearings). In this way she could easily trump the so-called legacy of her peckerwood husband.
[I said it first in a comment on Bob Cesca's blog because I wasn't thinking fast enough for my own good. That's just how selfless I am with my bon mots.]
To this, I say this: I think the Clinton for VP issue is a red herring. There's no way she'll get the VP nomination, and I'm sure she doesn't want it. There's a much bigger incentive for her to go out and help nail down the "bitter" vote for Obama: SCOTUS. And after replacing Stevens, she would even be in a position to make history for women by, later, being named the first female Chief Justice (after Roberts and Alito are impeached for being "disingenuous" during their confirmation hearings). In this way she could easily trump the so-called legacy of her peckerwood husband.
[I said it first in a comment on Bob Cesca's blog because I wasn't thinking fast enough for my own good. That's just how selfless I am with my bon mots.]
Friday, January 25, 2008
Awesome prediciton revisited
First, cross-reference this. Now fast-forward to this. The author of the former was me, here, on 16 December 2007. The author of the latter was bigshot wingnut and Iraq War advocate Michael Ledeen at National Review Online, a wretched hive of scum and villainy, on 25 January 2008. I don't know much about Ledeen, but evidently he's a right-wing insider, and people of that type pay attention to him. The Republican Party overflows with them.
Think of it: Joementum 2008 -- Lieberman and Petraeus as the Republican standard-bearers. A "national unity" ticket for the celebrity DC pundits and journalists to fetish. I don't think regular voters would see much of a difference between that ticket and a Hillary Clinton/Wes Clark Democratic alternative. Except I'm guessing that more of them would vote for Joe and Dave because Hillary is too cold, or too emotional, or is humorless, or cackles too much, or something. So how do you like them apples? I know Big Otis hates them and thinks they're make-believe.
Think of it: Joementum 2008 -- Lieberman and Petraeus as the Republican standard-bearers. A "national unity" ticket for the celebrity DC pundits and journalists to fetish. I don't think regular voters would see much of a difference between that ticket and a Hillary Clinton/Wes Clark Democratic alternative. Except I'm guessing that more of them would vote for Joe and Dave because Hillary is too cold, or too emotional, or is humorless, or cackles too much, or something. So how do you like them apples? I know Big Otis hates them and thinks they're make-believe.
Sunday, December 16, 2007
Most awesome political prediction ever
Several days ago Steven Benen wrote a piece for TalkingPointsMemo in which he kicked around the possibility that no Republican presidential candidate will be able to win a majority of convention delegates next summer. His point was that they may end up with a brokered convention in which one of the nominees is shoved down the party's throat by the likes of Cheney and Big Business (for example), or else a so-called unity candidate might be shoved down that same orifice or perhaps the one south of the border.
I sent an email to Benen with a bold yet completely logical prediction: after the Republican candidates destroy each other and themselves, as is happening apace every day, the party will turn to two saviors who are completely beneath the radar at the moment. By comparison to the current crew, they will look clean and serious. I'm talking about Sen. Joe Lieberman (Ind-CT) for President and Gen. Dave Petraeus for VP. Benen did not reply, probably on the theory that I'm an ignorant crackpot.
A Lieberman/Petraeus Republican ticket would be the political equivalent of asymmetric warfare, and it would have Democratic leadership perplexed for weeks. They'll never see it coming and won't be able to decide how to respond. They'd be pre-out-triangulated.
Think about it: Lieberman gambled his career last year by snuggling up to despised Republicans to prove his "national security" qualifications, and he won. He has no future in a progressive Democratic Party, if such a thing should ever emerge. And now it is even being reported that he will endorse a Republican (McCain) for President, so Lieberman has pretty much already abandoned the Democrats and slipped them a green weenie besides.
Yes, Lieberman is Jewish, which the Cracker-Industrial Complex tends not to like. But I'm sure Republican propagandists could sell Joe to the party base as a "good Jew" to serve their current purposes. And for many "middle of the road" voters, who Republicans will need to dupe once again to keep the White house in 2008, Lieberman's nonstandard religion will not be an issue; it will even give those voters a reason to feel all proud of themselves for being "tolerant." And anyway, Joe would be balanced on the ticket by Petraeus, who is a soldier with name recognition, goddammit, and one who is associated with the Christian "brand."
Now don't forget where you first read this awesome prediction; later you can share my 1.5 minutes of fame by proxy.
I sent an email to Benen with a bold yet completely logical prediction: after the Republican candidates destroy each other and themselves, as is happening apace every day, the party will turn to two saviors who are completely beneath the radar at the moment. By comparison to the current crew, they will look clean and serious. I'm talking about Sen. Joe Lieberman (Ind-CT) for President and Gen. Dave Petraeus for VP. Benen did not reply, probably on the theory that I'm an ignorant crackpot.
A Lieberman/Petraeus Republican ticket would be the political equivalent of asymmetric warfare, and it would have Democratic leadership perplexed for weeks. They'll never see it coming and won't be able to decide how to respond. They'd be pre-out-triangulated.
Think about it: Lieberman gambled his career last year by snuggling up to despised Republicans to prove his "national security" qualifications, and he won. He has no future in a progressive Democratic Party, if such a thing should ever emerge. And now it is even being reported that he will endorse a Republican (McCain) for President, so Lieberman has pretty much already abandoned the Democrats and slipped them a green weenie besides.
Yes, Lieberman is Jewish, which the Cracker-Industrial Complex tends not to like. But I'm sure Republican propagandists could sell Joe to the party base as a "good Jew" to serve their current purposes. And for many "middle of the road" voters, who Republicans will need to dupe once again to keep the White house in 2008, Lieberman's nonstandard religion will not be an issue; it will even give those voters a reason to feel all proud of themselves for being "tolerant." And anyway, Joe would be balanced on the ticket by Petraeus, who is a soldier with name recognition, goddammit, and one who is associated with the Christian "brand."
Now don't forget where you first read this awesome prediction; later you can share my 1.5 minutes of fame by proxy.
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