All pundits suck except for me

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I did my best to avoid listening to vacuous celebrity pundits talk about yesterday's insignificant elections. Everybody's nervous about the economy, they tell us. Well no fucking shit. It's a critical fact about current affairs, but it had nothing to do with any of the nationally reported election results.

The results of the NJ governor's race was accurately predicted by pollsters for weeks: a toss-up between two unpopular politicians. The Democrat lost because the machine didn't bring out the urban vote for him. Urban Obama voters stayed home because Corzine and the NJ Democratic machine have issues --- nothing to do with Obama. There was to be no surprise no matter which way the wind blew.

The results of the Virginia governor's race was accurately predicted by pollsters practically since Day 1. There really hasn't been any significant liberalization trend in Virginia over the past decade, just the trading of some Republican seats for some conservative Democrat seats. Virginia has a southern mentality, and 18 months of racist slander against Obama during and after the 2008 campaign has evidently resonated with many "independent" voters (you know: crackers). A Pat Robertson protege will always win in Virginia if he behaves himself during the campaign. No surprises; no meaningful national momentum shift related to "economic jitters" or Obama indicated by the results.

The only significant result was the NY-23 special election, which wasn't critical or "key" in any conventional strategic way. The significance of it was that the Tea Bag Party, as led by Sarah Palin and Fred Thompson, was successful in marginalizing New England Republicans by backing a right-wing radical. Nothing to do with "economic woes" or Obama, but lots to do with the heart-warming plague that could subdivide the Republicans into two permanent minority parties or else create a small but decisive exodus of New England Republicans to the Democratic side of the divide.

For the old folks out there, the NY-23 special election campaign was roughly analogous to what it would have looked like in about 1970 if George McGovern and Ted Kennedy and Adlai Stevenson III had made a strategic decision to ally themselves with emerging radical left-wing political celebrities like Abbie Hoffman, Jerry Rubin, and Bobby Seale... after the disastrous 1968 Democratic National Convention and presidential election. The Democrats in fact were tarred with guilt by association with left-wing radicals in the 1972 campaign, but the connection was spurious. Machine Democrats left George McGovern to the wolves in 1972, but for reasons very different than Radical Chic. Republicans exploited the generational divide in the Democratic Party to persuade the Silent Majority that the "Yippies" were running the show. It worked, and it paved the way for Ronald Reagan to begin his ascent from the slime to claw the Constitution from its hermetic glass display case and drag it in shreds back down into the slime... along with the rest of us.

An interesting question is when New England Republicans will work through their denial and wise up to the idea that there is no place for them in their party. If I were in Obama's political boiler room, I'd be volunteering for the Democratic Northern Strategy project in order to put down a historical bookend for the odious Republican Southern Strategy that defeated conservative Southern Democrats with Republicans or peeled them off to the Republican side. A Northern Strategy would not have to produce dramatic numerical shifts. I think that the best wedge issue for a Northern Strategy would be reproductive rights, i.e., reproductive rights for women.

Editor's note: sorry, no time to edit this mess for readability tonight, but I think the gist is self-evident. I'm now off to read some Fletcher Hanks comic reprints before bedtime. Stardust The Super-Wizard --- yes!