*
Evan Bayh's surprise announcement about not running for re-election to his Indiana Senate seat has so far inspired two theories: one is that his stated reason for doing so is genuine and the other is that he may "have his eye on the presidency." Neither theory explains why Bayh's move was so abrupt that it caught most of his own Senate and campaign staff members by surprise. So, without more hard information, I'm not "Bayhing" either of them. (Thank you.)I suggest that we consider analyzing the Evan Bayh puzzle using the analysis tool known as The Monty Hall Problem. See, Evan is playing Let's Make A Deal. He knows that behind two of the curtains are goats, but behind the other curtain is: A NEW CAR! Like every red-blooded American, Evan wants A NEW CAR. He already knew which curtain he would pick. But, say late last week, someone in the control room whispered into his earpiece that his curtain has a goat behind it. So today Bayh chose a different curtain, and behind it was an awkwardly truncated Senate career... and a $13 million Senate campaign war chest* that he gets to keep!
Evan Bayh is not running for President because that's definitely a "goat" for him; no chance for that to turn into anything other than a way to blow $13M out his vent feathers. And he is not retiring because he feels the Senate is broken, because he is well aware that he's one of the main people responsible for breaking it. So then what is he doing? To find out, we need to follow the Monty. If we can find out who whispered to Evan from Master Control (National Inquirer? Larry Flynt? Justice Department?) then we will know which goat he left behind his curtain.
[Editor's note: the author grudgingly admits he's probably all full of shit on this one.]
___________________
* I'm pretty sure this is accurate, but please correct me if I'm wrong.
politician bugging out on short notice? Scandal to be announced? Is his wife making millions lobbying for the insurance company Obama is about to kneecap? Did he have an affair with a Biology professor from Alabama who just got into hot water?
ReplyDeleteOR--
will this "executive at heart" switch parties and attempt to run for presidency that way? You're right, he's got no chance as a Dem.
OR--
did he tell the truth and you're being a cynical wanker? Actually, only a cynical wanker would suggest he might tell the truth. Or know it.
CW: yes, Bayh has been an executive at heart ever since the Indiana governor's mansion was handed to him on a silver spoon. I don't see switching parties to be a smart play for the guy because his Republican primary opponents will eviscerate him as an ideological carpetbagger or Trojan horse. Not that Bayh can be assumed to make the smart move (which *would* have been to stay in the Senate for media exposure purposes). But political money is generally smarter than that.
ReplyDeleteI like your conflict of interest hypothesis. Maybe he or someone very close has become a "person of interest" in some federal inquiry. It's happened in recent memory, but usually to Republicans who have brought home mountains of cash to their right-wing home states (such as Alaska).
BTW, he can't keep the money for personal use. I thought they used to be able to do that, but I guess not. More in a later post.
Haven't heard much about the quest for a new name....(or I missed it).
ReplyDelete"Cynical Wanker" just might do the trick.
Barry Goldwater
Barry: I only seem cynical. My negativism isn't generally of the knee-jerk variety but slithers out of my pores after a period of rumination.
ReplyDeleteI've got the new handle narrowed down to two or three, and am "focus-grouping" them at the current time. Thanks for asking!